When Will Bangladesh Reach Replacement-level Fertility? the Role of Education and Family Planning Services*

The rapid decline of fertility, from over 6.5 births per woman to 3.3 births, in the last two decades in Bangladesh is, indeed, a historic record in demographic transition. The country is poor and has remained traditional and conservative. Although the extent and rapidity of the decrease in fertility have been very impressive by international standards, continued fertility decline is desirable, as population crowding, environmental deterioration, massive migration from rural areas to unplanned urban settings, and rapid depletion of resources are becoming acute. However, recent statistics suggest that, despite a continuing increase in contraceptive use, the fertility decline in Bangladesh has stalled: Three successive Demographic and Health Surveys show that the total fertility rates were 3.4, 3.3, and 3.3 in 1991-93, 1994-96, and 1997-99, respectively. Contraceptive prevalence increased over this same period, from 45 per cent in 1993-94 to 54 per cent in 1999-2000 (Mitra and others, 2001).